A snarky Ad Age columnist, Dave Morgan, has said that marketers will have a tough time shifting 10-20% of their TV ad dollars online as they’ve said they wanted to:
With ... increasing pressure to be innovative, many advertisers and agencies today are in a headlong race to shift and diversify their TV ad budgets, taking greater advantage of multiplatform-platform “video.” And why not? TV advertising is expensive and campaign reach is declining thanks to audience fragmentation.
However noble and well-intentioned, however, the expectations of many of these advertisers and agencies are unrealistic, particularly those calling for 10% to 20% budget shifts out of TV into digital video. That’s because, you see, 97% of all video viewing in the U.S. still occurs on TV. Yes. Whether the data is from Nielsen, Pew or eMarketer, all agree that only a small fraction of video viewing in the U.S. today occurs on devices other than the TV.
Yes. And no. Because this data is misleading.
First, reach in the old sense of the word — mass markets — doesn’t even exist on TV these days. To reach the consumers major brands need... Read more
Marketers need intuition more than ever before. The masses of data that they can analyze, and the tools available, can certainly find interesting patterns on their own, but that is just one ingredient in the value creation recipe. Since there’s so much data out there, good intuition (and by that, I’m including judgment as well) is necessary to set priorities for what to look for, what matters to the customer, what the competitive landscape looks like and how behaviors are changing over time.
Advertisers have always trusted their guts when it comes to connecting with consumers. But, how do we really know that works? Enter data science. The numbers are out there to tell us if campaigns are truly effective, and it’s sparking a debate over the end of intuition.