In the past year, we’ve seen the greater awareness (and, consequently, media spending) devoted to digital video, mobile, programmatic buying and selling of ad inventory, and social media take off in manners and volumes most of us wouldn’t have predicted. There’s no such thing as the status quo in rapidly growing technologies and media channels, and in 2013, records will be broken, and outmoded models will crumble. Here are 11 ways we predict the digital marketplace will really change in 2013.
- Video RTB revenue will exceed Forrester expectations. Sure, we have an affinity to this, but Forrester has predicted RTB video spending will grow from $387 million in 2012 to $667 million in 2013. This might sound like huge growth, and it is, but it’s conservative given the conversation about programmatic buying and selling is picking up. RTB is a big part of programmatic in video. If people were surprised by the statistics around the rise of online video consumption in 2012, 2013 will be even more of a shocker. RTB in video will be lauded for its abilities to monetize video content and give brands the reach they desire.
- Video publishers will start to benefit from new programmatic pricing technologies. A lot of publishers have been wary of moving into programmatic systems in general for fear of devaluing their inventory. But in 2012, private video exchanges and other systems have brought increased revenue to publishers, and adoption will continue to spread. “Programmatic” just might be the word of 2013.
- Private marketplaces will take off for the largest publishers, and they’ll begin to go mainstream by the end of 2013. Misgivings about private marketplaces are premature — if publishers are wary of devaluing their inventory, then that means they know what it’s worth. As time progresses, they’ll become more accustomed and create more marketplaces where they have more control over sales.
- As the move towards programmatic continues, the industry will see more ad sales organizations shift to more of a programmatic model and reduce the size of their direct sales teams due to the efficiencies that programmatic brings to the table. Deals will still need to be brokered between publishers and advertisers and this is where the direct sales team will shine.
- The old-line display SSPs will get into video ad serving. Basically, the engagement opportunity video affords is too rich to ignore, and the market will soon demand the established SSPs to diversify and move into adjacent markets.
- Facebook is getting into video and they’ll shake things up. Concerns over the effectiveness of Facebook display ads will push the network to continue to innovate, and everyone will watch to see if more TV dollars move online because Facebook is in the video advertising game, given the volume of videos social users watch and share
- Yahoo! will become a serious video player. Recently minted CEO Marissa Meyer understands the value ad-tech plays in an overall strategy and is ready to expand their offerings, leading to continued consolidation in the market. Meyer and her second in command – Henrique De Castro – clearly have a vision that calls for more automation and the next plausible – and lucrative place – to drive this is video.
- At least one agency holding company will invest in or outright acquire a video RTB-enabled supply source. In the interest of providing full-service solutions, this is one service the agencies will see value in taking in-house.
- Consolidations or shakeouts on the DSP side of the house will start to take place. The expenses of participating in the programmatic market (and winning bids) will squeeze out the small-time players. Publishers are at a strategic advantage right now to, for example, require minimum bids, which will ultimately thin the herd.
- The Media Rating Council (MRC) will approve 3MS (Making Measurement Make Sense), and the new standard in media measurement will lead to an accelerated shift in budgets from television to digital video. A robust, cross-platform measurement system will reveal insights about usage and engagement that send marketers scrambling toward digital channels.
- Traditional video networks will be virtually non-existent in the digital upfronts. They’ll be present — they more or less have to participate —but they’ll be overshadowed by players who are truly committed to digital video; the players who are willing to approach digital video as its own channel and not just an offshoot to TV.
We’re planning for big changes in video the coming year, and we’re planning to be surprised, too. So should any of us, in any channel, on the buy and sell side alike. What new developments do you expect to see as 2013 unfolds?