It’s a relative no-brainer to chalk up an 18.5 percent drop in traditional media spend in 2009 to the recession that put a chokehold on the great majority of budgets.
There was a 2.1 percent increase in 2010 to $127.2 billion, likely going in the positive direction because more marketing dollars were allocated as the nation came out of the worst of the financial abyss.
But what are we to make of eMarketer’s forecasted 0.9 percent drop this year in spend with directories, magazines, newspapers, outdoor, radio and television, not to mention the seesaw nature of the estimated spend over the next four years – up 2.2 percent in 2012, down 0.6 percent in 2013, up 0.9 percent in 2014 and down 0.1 percent to $129.1 billion in 2015?
Should we be surprised at all the uncertainty, given the rapid and constant changes in technology and the migration of consumers to the Internet and mobile, among other distractions?
The one exception to traditional media’s predicament is spending on TV advertising (which includes network, syndication, and spot broadcast TV as well as cable TV). eMarketer estimates that this grew by nearly 10 percent in 2010, as the economy recovered to reach a total of $59 billion. By 2015, U.S. spending on TV advertising is forecast to total $68 billion.
But not all TV stations or groups will count the cash. Noted media analyst Jack Myers is bullish only on those TV entities that adapt with the times.
“The industry is transitioning from a mass, disconnected market to a dynamic, interactive market,” he said recently. “When legacy and digital media come together, there is a great opportunity for strong brands with loyal audiences to deliver the market advertisers want.”
It’s what I call the movement of TV viewers from the passive to the interactive. With mobile devices and computers within four feet of them at all times, many are expecting and wanting to engage with programming.
Beyond TV, where is the money going?
Online advertising revenues in the U.S. alone hit a record $7.3 billion in the first quarter, according to the Internet Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
"The consistent and considerable year-over-year growth we're seeing demonstrates that digital media is an increasingly popular destination for ad dollars, and for good reason," said Randall Rothenberg, president and CEO of the IAB. "As Americans spend more time online for information and entertainment purposes, digital advertising and marketing has emerged as one of the most effective tools businesses have to attract and retain customers."
Just how much is going into mobile? eMarketer estimates total mobile advertising spending in the US will reach $1.1 billion this year, up 48 percent over 2010.
Whether the mobile spend is working depends on who you ask. Incredibly, while a quarter of respondents in a King Fish Media poll said mobile advertising was not working, one third said they weren’t even measuring their results.
A lack of clarity certainly won’t get marketers to dive deeper into the mobile pool.
