The safest prediction for the mobile industry for the first half of 2011 is that the carriers will tease us further with appealing “deals” that will push smartphone adoption closer to 50 percent in the United States.
While no one expects the newest model of the iPhone to be given away for no charge to consumers in exchange for a long-term contract, most other devices will have price tags that are lower than a movie ticket.
What makes me say so?
During the holiday season, BlackBerry and Windows 7 Phones, among others, were routinely presented to consumers for free. Even the iPhone 3GS sold for $24.95 at Radio Shack in a trade-in promotion.
To top that, in Canada, operator Telus gave customers a free X-Box 360 with a Windows 7 Phone in exchange for a three-year commitment.
This week, Nielsen said that smartphone penetration reached 31 percent through November http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/apple-leads-smartphone-race-while-android-attracts-most-recent-customers/. Given the December frenzy, plethora of device choices, and the pricing war that likely will come when AT&T loses its iPhone exclusivity, it’s safe to say that beachgoers next summer will have both tans and new phones to compare.
And brand marketing managers will need to plan for more sophisticated consumers with higher-end phones.
Other likely developments before we hit July 4:
- 2011 will be seen as the year that mobile marketing made a major play in the Super Bowl. For the last several years, we have been disappointed by the lack of mobile elements in spots during the telecast. In fact, last year, the biggest problem was with Denny’s, which gave away Grand Slam breakfasts without employing mobile to create a loyalty club. My advice then? Why not have viewers text in for the offer, then create a mobile club where customers can opt in for future trackable offers and product information? While I don’t bet on football, I would bet that loyalty clubs will be created or greatly expanded during the Feb. 6 showing.
- We’ll be presented with even more stories about the mobile device becoming our wallet, but the great majority of Americans will view the idea with skepticism. In a poll of mobile industry drivers conducted by wireless analyst Chetan Sharma http://chetansharma.com/MobilePredictions2011.htm, nearly 50 percent called mobile payments a breakthrough category in 2011. But in a 2010 KPMG study http://momentsoftrust.com/mobile-banking-i-dont-even-deposit-checks-in-an-atm/, U.S. respondents who said they were comfortable using their mobile devices for financial transactions grew to only 16 percent, a 6 percent increase from the last survey. I’m not yet ready to swipe my phone at the checkout stand.
- Security on a smartphone will be compromised, but consumers will ignore calls to buy virus/malware protection.
- Some jerk will claim his mobile phone exploded and caused injury. Media will run with the story. Sound familiar? It has happened just about every year in the last five and almost invariably it turns out to be a hoax.
- Disney won’t be the only company closing in on 50 percent of engagements via mobile by 2012.
- Given the breathtaking speed of innovation in mobile and personal technology, I will have missed forecasting major news coming in the first half of 2011.
