I've always contended that research is only as valid as the premise it's being used to support -- meaning that for every point someone is trying to get across, there is a research statistic that can be touted -- or manipulated -- to put that point in a favorable light. Four out of five dentists prefer their patients to chew Trident? Well, a competing brand can spin this to say that 20 percent of dentists denigrate Trident's ability to fight cavities. See what I mean?

But as Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Internet Project, pointed out during his afternoon keynote at the iMedia Agency Summit, his organization is a "fact tank," that has no agenda driving its work. Their job is to observe and report on objectively observed patterns and then stand aside and let other players do what they will with the results.

Rainie reported today on three revolutions in media that Pew has been following, referring to them as "megaphones," and offered some context, predictions, and takeaways for brands and marketers. Here are a few of the highlights:

Photo by Grant Neufeld (available at Flickr.com)

Megaphone 1: Internet and broadband

The growth in broadband penetration has made people become more active internet users. And more importantly, they also became content creators.

Consequences for informational ecosystem:

1. Volume of information pouring into people's lives grew incrementally. Average person gets five times more information in their daily lives than they did in 1980.
2. Velocity. The speed of interaction has picked up, as has consumer access and dissemination of events that matter to them.
3. Vibrance. The immersiveness of media is increasing. We are packing more things into the screen, and the output is becoming  more compelling.
4. Valence (the daily use). Rainie said that two-thirds of internet users now customize the information flowing into their lives, and organize their group activities (by creating new filters/new intermediaries)

So what does this mean for brands?

1. It's created a Bermuda Triangle: Markets are fractured, the marketplace is roiled, metrics haven't kept pace, and there's too much noise, so it's easier for things to get lost in the shuffle.
2. Brands are co-owned by advocates/acolytes. In the best of times, they become sanctuaries; in the worst of times, you have jeopardized the thing they care about. If you don't deliver to their expectations: #fail.

Megaphone 2: Mobile connectivity

Cell phones are now owned by 85 percent of U.S. adults (in 2005, it was 58 percent), and 57 percent of adults connect to the mobile internet. Mobile is now a majority experience, even for the traditionally low-level adopters of technology, such as the elderly. Additionally, people with lower incomes and minorities are more enthusiastic about mobile internet than they are about internet.

Consequences for information ecosystem:

• Place and presence have changed to anytime/anywhere. People can complete social transaction or exchange information without that person having to be present. There is a problem with this, however: interruptions.
• Dramatic increases in cross-platform communications and media mixing

So what does this mean for brands:

There are three attention zones for media professionals to keep an eye on:

1. Continuous partial attention. It adds stress to people's lives, but it's also the raw material for "fluid intelligence."
2. Deep dives. This dramatically shows up (example) in health searches. "instant experts". The Golden Age of Amateur Experts.
3. Info snacking. Information is available from your pocket-sized device, so it can be accessed whenever someone has a few minutes to kill in between activities.

Megaphone 3: Social networking use

Social networking has made spaces more vivid, capturable, and understandable:

• It's changed character of the population
• It's changed the character of content
• It's changed the rhythms of engagement
• It's changed the composition and use of people's social networks. They've gotten bigger, more diverse, more segmented, and more layered.

Rainie also offered a list of near-term trends for digital professionals to keep an eye on:

• Mass socialization. Social earned media and paid media become more intertwined.
• Platform proliferation. New devices and multitasking abound.
• Mobile comes of age. Extends mass socialization and extends media point of sale.
• Apps everywhere. There will be disruptive growth in apps, fueled by games and social utilities.
• Dominance of Facebook. Facebook is a juggernaut that is rewriting rules and shifting attention from websites.
• Rise of social commerce. This is redefining consumer-retailer interactions.
• Relevance and privacy. It's a critical uncertainty. People don't understand enough of the issue yet to make decisions. They are mostly transactional when it comes to the value of privacy (driven by context and circumstances), but the wrong move by any of the big players can create "an Exxon Valdez of privacy."
• Infrastructure growth. Increased access and speed expand digital opportunities.
• The "Heads down" Generation. As dramatic consumer habit change, all eyes should be on wireless devices.
• Digital downsizing. More filtering/control of apps, friends, followers, and choices are on the horizon.

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