The price of online CPMs is "off about 20 percent" reports Ad Age, and the floor (avg CPMs on ad nets) slipped to $.60 – $1.10 last year (about 10 percent what publishers can get on their own). But the recession may not have a whole lot to do with it.

 

Ad Age cites two leading factors. One, there's a glut of inventory out there. Web publishers are pretty good now at driving increased pageviews out of each user visit. Two, publishers have gone overboard with ads per page (creating what one commentator referred to as "the Christmas tree effect"). 

 

Over at MediaWeek, they hear from sources that rates are down at least 10 percent for high end inventory and as much as 54 percent for ad networks, but they conclude that, "So far, the first months of 2009 aren't looking as dire as once predicted for the online advertising market." Said Forbes.com CEO Jim Spanfeller, "things have been OK. It’s not the nuclear winter we feared." 

 

Even for Nick Denton's Gawker Media, things aren't so bad. Last Fall, Denton was preparing for a 40 percent slash in ad revenue (All Things Digital). And recently warned iMedia's audience that "the downturn is an extinction-level event." But so far, his revenue is up 10 percent this year (again, All Things Digital, but a different article).